Who are Tomorrow’s PGA Tour Stars?
By Bradley Turner, Keiser University College of Golf Director of Online Golf Instruction – MBA, PGA
The Korn Ferry Tour concluded the latest season this fall, with the top 25 players on the points list earning their PGA Tour card for 2022. These players have proven their golf skills at a very high level over a COVID interrupted tour season that started in January of 2020. Over these two years, the new rookies on the PGA Tour have passed the Korn Ferry audition for the big show. Who will be able to perform against the best players in the world in 2022 and become a household name for golf fans? A good predictor of the names that will be climbing the PGA Tour leaderboards can be found in the last few seasons on the Korn Ferry tour. After all, previous success is a good indicator of future success.
Winning
Forecasting future success on the PGA Tour can start by looking at past victories on the Korn Ferry Tour. Previous Korn Ferry alums that won multiple times before earning their PGA Tour card include Sungjae Im, Sam Burns, and Cameron Champ. Winning once on the Korn Ferry Tour is great, but multiple victories have proven that success at the next level is very likely. These three have subsequently won at the PGA Tour level, with Im and Burns winning twice and Champ winning three times. Winning breeds winning.
In the latest graduating class of 2021, there are six multiple winners, with Mito Pereira leading the way with three Korn Ferry Tour victories. The others include leading money winner Stephan Jaegar, Greyson Sigg, Davis Riley, Jared Wolfe, and Cameron Young. History is on the side of these six players, and I anticipate that each one of these has a good chance of a successful rookie year on the PGA Tour.
Ball Striking Skill
Another accurate predictor for future success is measuring the ball striking skill. The Korn Ferry Tour does not have all the shot link data like the PGA Tour, but they do track the old-fashioned greens in regulation measurement. Two of the highest-rated in greens in regulation in 2018 and 2019 were Scottie Scheffler, who ranked 5th in 2019, and Cameron Champ, who ranked 4th in 2018. Other highly ranked ball-strikers include K.H. Lee and Sebastian Munoz, who have both won on the PGA Tour. Over the course of a long season, the players who can consistently putt for birdies will create separation from those that miss too many greens. The green in regulation statistic has been the gold standard in assessing golf skills for many years. If you are going to have a lasting career on the PGA Tour, a player must strike the ball very well. One of the all-time great ball strikers is Lee Trevino, who once said, “There are two things that won’t last long in this world; dogs chasing cars and pros getting up and down for pars.”
The best ball-striker in 2020-2021 on the Korn Ferry Tour was Will Zalatoris, who averaged an amazing 80% of greens in regulation. He “graduated” early to the PGA Tour largely on the strength of strong finishes leading up to a runner-up finish in the 2021 Masters. Zalatoris collected over $3 million on the PGA Tour last season. A great ball-striker is going to make a lot of money playing the game!
Driving Distance
The PGA Tour has become a power game, and those that have longer than average distance off the tee have a substantial advantage over the shorter hitters. The capability of getting home in two on 600-yard par fives will create separation from the field, especially over an entire season.
There are plenty of quality ball strikers that do not have the power advantage and yet have become hall of fame golfers like Jim Furyk and Zach Johnson. These outlier golfers are very difficult to identify, but the longest drivers of the ball are much easier. The longest of the Top 25 graduates in 2021 include Taylor Pendrith, who was 3rd in distance off the tee and 18th in greens in regulation. Cameron Young was 8th in distance and won twice, while Curtis Thompson finished 10th in driving distance and collected one victory. Bombers can last a long time playing this game so look for these three to make a name for themselves in 2022.
Predicting Golf’s Future Stars
Here are the predictions of the top Korn Ferry graduates who will become the stars of tomorrow. These five have been selected using a combination of winning, ball striking, and distance off the tee.
- Mito Pereira – with three victories combined with a 17th ranking in greens in regulation with better than average driving distance. He has the pedigree to win at the next level.
- Will Zalatoris – a ball-striking machine and long off the tee, he has already proven his ability to compete at the highest level against the world’s best players. He won one time on the Korn Ferry Tour before promotion to the PGA Tour for the remainder of 2021.
- Curtis Thompson– a top 10 driver in distance combined with a 23rd ranking in greens in regulation is a recipe for making money. He also won on the Korn Ferry tour, all signs for good things in 2022 for Curtis.
- Davis Riley – a multiple winner in 2021 with good distance and strong ball striking skills, he is very likely to be in the running for Rookie of the Year in 2022.
- Cameron Young – long off the tee and has proven his ability to close a tournament with two victories in 2021.
As the fall season is now complete, the PGA Tour will take a holiday break before starting up again in January. It will be another exciting season for golf fans with the new faces and names appearing on the leaderboard. Look for the five players above to become contenders for PGA Tour titles. If history tells us anything about the future, we will see a victory or two from these five in 2022.
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